As the world awaits the outcome of the latest U.S. tariff negotiations, it has been a relatively subdued week in the financial markets—especially when compared to the turbulence seen in recent weeks following former President Trump’s return to the political stage and the introduction of sweeping new tariffs.
This week has seen relatively light economic data releases, which has likely contributed to the dampened market volatility. The first significant release came on Tuesday with the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report. Expectations were for a slight uptick from 7.48 million to 7.49 million openings; however, the actual figure came in significantly lower at 7.19 million. The U.S. dollar experienced a brief strengthening in response, though the movement was not enough to trigger major shifts in the markets.
On Wednesday, attention remained on the U.S., though German CPI data was released earlier in the day. Germany’s inflation rate slightly exceeded forecasts, coming in at 0.4% compared to the expected 0.3%. However, the focus quickly shifted back to the United States with the release of several key indicators. It was a disappointing day overall for U.S. economic data: three out of four major releases fell short of expectations. Most notably, Advance GDP (quarter-over-quarter) figures came in at -0.3%, missing forecasts that had anticipated a drop to 0.2% from the previous 2.4%. Additionally, both the Core PCE Price Index (month-over-month) and the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change missed their targets, although the Employment Cost Index (quarter-over-quarter) came in line with expectations.
Looking ahead, the most anticipated data release of the week is scheduled for this afternoon, with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due at 1:30 PM. This figure will be closely watched, particularly in light of the weaker-than-expected employment data earlier in the week.
Next week’s market activity is expected to be dominated by central bank decisions, with both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England set to announce their latest interest rate decisions—events that are likely to carry significant implications for global financial markets.
