In recent weeks, markets have shown signs of stabilizing following the turbulence of the Trump regime and the self-styled “Liberation Day.” We now find ourselves in a period of anticipation, awaiting key developments on tariff deals, geopolitical tensions, and inflation data.

The first major release of the week arrived on Tuesday, with the UK’s Claimant Count Change. Social scrutiny of the welfare system has been heightened lately, so many will welcome the news that the figure came in significantly below expectations. Forecasts had predicted an increase to 22.3k, up from the previous, notably strong reading of –16.9k. However, the actual figure was just 5.2k—a significant beat. The Pound found some support following this release, although the reaction was somewhat limited. Later that day, softer-than-expected US CPI data further bolstered the Pound’s position against the US Dollar.

Thursday brought the next set of key data releases. In the morning, the UK GDP figures were in focus. Following two consecutive readings that exceeded expectations, markets were watching closely to see if the trend could continue. Once again, the data did not disappoint: GDP grew by 0.2%, compared to forecasts predicting zero growth.

Later in the day, the US released another series of disappointing figures—most notably retail sales—raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting. Consumer sentiment data, due later today, will offer further insight.

Looking ahead to next week, the economic calendar is relatively light. However, the main points of interest will likely be UK CPI, as well as PMI data from the UK, US, and Eurozone.