Central Bank Talks, UK’s GDP, and Global Risk: Implications for Next Week’s Markets

While central bank speakers are taking the stage today and the University of Michigan sentiment figures are on the horizon, yesterday’s inflation shockwaves are expected to continue affecting the markets. Geopolitical tensions are also contributing to risk aversion, and it appears the longer-term trend of the US dollar gaining strength is making a comeback.

In the world of central banks, the Bank of England is in the spotlight. Both Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Cunliffe are speaking at an IIF conference in Marrakech. Bailey, who cast a crucial vote in the last policy meeting that kept interest rates at 5.25%, is due to speak at 09:00BST. Meanwhile, Cunliffe, one of the four out of nine MPC members who voted for a rate hike in September, will be sharing his insights at 17:30BST. It’s worth noting that this is his last MPC meeting before stepping down from the committee.

In the UK, GDP for August matched expectations at 0.2%. But this hasn’t been greeted with much enthusiasm. Market consensus suggests the UK could slide into a recession by the end of the year. To avoid negative growth for the third quarter, UK GDP for September needs to be at 0.4%, which could prove to be a tough ask.

The financial world is still feeling the ripples from higher-than-expected US inflation. Longer-term treasury yields are climbing, equities are dropping, and the US dollar is making a strong comeback, retracing 50% of its previous six days of losses. This also led to declines in the Euro and the Pound.

In what has been undoubtedly a tumultuous week, the potential for a ground invasion by Israel over the weekend may cause a continuation of the “risk-off” sentiment in the markets next week, further supporting the recent Dollar strength.