The hangover from the downgraded IMF forecasts on the UK economy followed by the Central Bank interest rate decisions has had a profound effect on GBP in the earlier parts of this week. We have seen the Sterling drop back into the teens this week against the USD. This a stark warning to traders around the world that the USD strength that persisted throughout 2022, could continue to hamper the Euro and Pound for many months to come. Following recent USD weakness, after the more dovish speeches made by members of the Fed. Data from the first couple of months indicate that the US is beginning to come out the other end of the Covid inflicted, global economic downturn. Key speakers from the Fed have also been out in full force this week. Jerome Powell gave a speech on Wednesday evening regarding inflation and gave a very balanced view on the economic outlook, stating that although inflation certainly appears to have peaked, it is still a real threat to the health of the US economy, and we should still expect the Fed to continue their rate hikes. The New York Fed President, John Williams, went as far as stating he still believes that a base rate of between 5% to 5.25% seems likely. In terms of the long term, I am still envisaging the GBP to gain back some ground against the USD in the months to come, but volatility will likely remain high.

UK GDP was the real talking point of the week in the UK markets. With little else out data-wise, this was the UK’s only real chance to regain some of the losses seen over the past week. The results were mixed with m/m readings coming out worse than expected and saw a contraction of -0.5% (forecast to come in at -0.3%) Although the UK did manage to post flat figures on its prelim q/q readings meaning the UK has managed to, technically, hold off the incoming recession for another 45 days, with final readings now likely to be highly anticipated. Following months of strikes across many major players in the services sector, it is actually a relatively impressive reading, with Jeremy Hunt quick to heap praise on his tenureship as chancellor. We are, however, in his own words, “not out of the woods yet.” For this reason, the GBP is down against the G10 this morning. BoE member, Huw Pill, will this morning be taking part in a panel titled “Gauging (dis)inflation pressures: comparing tools and current findings” this will be closely monitored by traders as we look to see if the dovish tone employed by the BoE will continue following this morning readings.

President Zelensky made a surprise visit to the UK, giving an impassioned speech to the members of parliament for additional support in countering Russian attacks. Zelensky went on to present a Ukrainian fighter pilot helmet to the speaker of the house, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, in a plea for the UK to provide Fighter Jets to Ukraine, stating that “we have freedom, give us wings to protect it” in a historic ending to his address of Westminster. He also heaped praise on former Prime Minister Boris Johnson for his role whilst still serving as Prime minister. Rishi Sunak, the current Prime Minister, appeared to indicate that he is prepared to send Fighter Jets to aid Ukraine in its war against Russia. With Western powers increasingly giving more and more weaponry to the Ukrainians, Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, has been quick to use this as a springboard to support his own agenda in the unprovoked war. Unfortunately, this does indicate that this conflict is likely to run well into the new year, with Russia showing no signs of winding down their assault. At this point, it appears that only a usurping of Putin will bring the war to an end, with an increasingly desperate Putin weighing heavily on Europe and the wider world.